Think It’s Better To Wait for a Recession Before You Move? Think Again.

Should You Wait for a Recession To Make Your Move in Real Estate?

Let’s talk about the “R” word that’s been creeping back into headlines lately recession. I know. It’s not exactly a warm and fuzzy topic, but if you’ve been toying with the idea of buying or selling a home here in New Hampshire, you might be wondering: Is now still a good time? Or should I wait and see what happens with the economy?

You’re not alone. According to a recent survey from John Burns Research & Consulting and Keeping Current Matters, 68% of people are putting their plans on hold because of economic uncertainty.

But here’s where it gets interesting: not all of those people are sitting on the sidelines because they’re worried some are hopeful. A decent number of buyers are actually betting that if a recession hits, mortgage rates might drop and make buying more affordable. In fact, Realtor.com found that nearly 30% of homebuyers said they’d be more likely to purchase if a recession happened.

Why? Because historically, mortgage rates tend to fall during economic slowdowns. We’ve seen it happen in the past six recessions rates dropped each time. So, the idea isn’t totally off base.

BUT and this is a big one those same buyers are also hoping home prices will drop. And that’s where the data tells a very different story.

According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices actually went up in four of the last six recessions. That 2008 crash we all remember? That was the outlier. It was fueled by a housing crisis, not a typical economic cycle. The inventory shortage we’ve been dealing with ever since has helped keep prices more stable even during downturns.

So here’s the reality check: if you’re waiting for a crash in home prices, you might be waiting a long time. In most New Hampshire markets, prices are still holding steady or inching up, just not at the breakneck pace we saw a couple of years ago.

As Navy Federal’s economist Robert Frick puts it:

"Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point."

My Take

If you're waiting for a "perfect storm" of low interest rates and lower home prices, you could miss some real opportunities in today’s market. The truth is, real estate decisions shouldn’t be based on headlines they should be based on your life.

Need more space? Want to downsize? Tired of renting? Your goals matter more than trying to time the market just right (because let’s be honest no one really does).

The Bottom Line

Yes, there’s a chance mortgage rates could dip if the economy cools. But a major drop in home prices? Not likely. If a move is on your horizon, let’s talk about what’s smart for you not just what the headlines are predicting.

📲 Shoot me a message or let’s grab coffee. We’ll look at your options and make a plan that makes sense—recession or no recession.